Sunday, June 01, 2008

Corbyn's May forecast

After last month's success, I'm relieved to say that things are back to normal for May, so my hat is safe from the frying pan. Remember, Corbyn forecast a cool month (0.5 to 1C below normal) with average rainfall (90-115%). Well, it turned out rather warm at 13.6C (here and here), which is more than 2C above the normal for May (about 2 standard deviations), and the rain was also clearly above his range (currently 128% at Philip Eden's site, although there is one more day to update there, which cannot bring it into the forecast range now updated to 124% for the full month). The temperature looks like it should be among the 10 warmest on record (and it could possibly be the warmest May for 160 years), although we will have to wait for the official figures to be sure.

So now Corbyn is down to a 40% success rate for the year so far (4 hits from 10 forecasts). Even if he gets every remaining month for the rest of the year perfect for temperature and rainfall, he cannot climb back up to his claimed 80% success rate.

1 comment:

Steve Bloom said...

Our friend Piers is involved in a new site. It's even worse than usual. There does seem to be more of this low-grade stuff about of late. I suppose the idea with complete garbage sites of that sort is to catch people who are looking into the issue for the first time.